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稳就业,有信心有能力有条件

2019-08-08

今年上半年,我国就业形势稳中向好,为经济平稳运行和社会大局稳定作出了积极贡献。当前经济运行稳中有变,外部环境发生明显变化。7月31日召开的中共中央政治局会议提出,把稳定就业放在更加突出位置。面对新问题新挑战,稳就业的潜力又该如何挖掘?

经济平稳运行、新动能快速发展提供坚实基础,上半年就业稳中向好。

上半年我国就业形势稳中向好,突出表现为五大特点。

就业规模持续扩大。上半年,全国城镇新增就业累计实现752万人,同比增加17万人。截至6月末,我国城镇就业人员总量超过4.3亿人,较上年末增加500万人以上。“在‘放管服’改革和创业创新政策促进下,民营经济快速增长,新产业新业态不断壮大,成为拉动就业的重要力量。”国家发改委新闻发言人孟玮说。

就业结构不断优化。服务业吸纳就业能力进一步增强。上半年,规模以上服务企业从业人数同比增长5.2%。截至6月末,第三产业就业人员比重同比提高1.4个百分点。

劳务派遣

重点群体就业基本稳定。高校毕业生就业稳中有升,截至6月1日,2018届高校毕业生签约率同比上升0.9个百分点。上半年,就业困难人员实现就业91万人,同比增加2万人。退役军人就业积极推进,钢铁、煤炭去产能职工安置平稳有序。

失业率保持低位。1—6月,全国城镇调查失业率处于4.8%—5.1%的区间,总体保持在较低水平。6月份,全国城镇调查失业率4.8%,为2016年开展该项统计调查以来最低值。二季度末,全国登记失业率为3.83%,同比下降0.12个百分点,降至多年来的低位。

就业质量进一步提升。工资水平继续保持增长,上半年,规模以上企业从业人员平均工资同比增长10.1%。国有及国有控股企业、外商及港澳台投资企业合同签订率同比基本持平,私营企业合同签订率同比提高约1个百分点。

总体来看,经济平稳运行、新动能快速发展对稳定和扩大就业提供了坚实基础,我国完全有能力、有条件应对各种风险和挑战,确保就业形势稳定,推动实现更高质量和更充分就业。”孟玮说。

我们有信心有底气也有能力有条件保障就业稳定,尽管上半年就业形势向好,但也有人担心,贸易摩擦等外部因素会不会使下半年就业压力加大甚至出现失业风险?

国家发改委就业司巡视员哈增友说:“我们有信心、有底气也有能力、有条件保障就业稳定。我们有应对各种风险挑战的成功经验。这么多年中国经济一直是在应对风险挑战中走过来的,就业也是一样。”

——我国内需潜力大,应对冲击有空间。

近年来我国经济始终保持稳中向好的态势,经济增长拉动就业的能力不断增强,用工规模逐年持续上升。2012年,我国GDP每增长1个百分点,带动城镇新增就业162万人。到2017年,GDP每增长1个百分点,带动城镇新增就业的人数是196万人,增加了34万人。

“2017年我国GDP达82.7万亿元,同比增长6.9%,净出口贡献率只有9.1%。换句话说,经济增量主要是通过扩内需来实现的。这说明只要我们灵活应对,适时调整宏观政策,加力加效扩大消费和投资需求,就能化解对就业的冲击。”哈增友说。

——劳动力需求旺,转岗就业有机会。

从2012年开始,劳动年龄人口呈逐年减少的趋势。2012—2017年,我国劳动年龄人口累计减少2300多万人,劳动力市场求人倍率这几年也一直保持在1以上。这说明国内用工需求比较旺盛。同时第三产业年均新增就业人员基本维持在1500万人左右,而且近年来家政、养老服务等新兴服务业发展很快,其就业容量比较大,企业职工转岗就业的机会也比较多。

——资金储备足,应对冲击有能力。

截至今年5月底,失业保险基金累计结余超过5600亿元,这对解决因贸易摩擦可能受影响职工的就业和生活有一定保障。

应对冲击,关键落脚点在实干。哈增友表示,围绕应对贸易摩擦,还将加强对重点地区、重点行业、重点人群就业情况监测分析,及时完善政策储备,确保我国就业形势保持稳定。

把更多力量放在重点地区和重点人群身上,坚决守住就业底线稳就业可以从哪里挖潜力、找空间?

——稳增长,守住就业基本盘。

我国大致有9.1亿劳动年龄人口,常年需要在城乡就业的约7.7亿人,同时每年新增就业要保证在1100万人以上,全国城镇调查失业率要控制在5.5%以内,登记失业率控制在4.5%以内,这是就业的基本盘。“从经济基本面和对就业吸纳能力来讲,完成这些就业任务需要GDP增速保持在6.5%左右。所以稳就业关键还是靠经济增长。”哈增友说。

——调结构,拓展就业新空间。

高质量的就业岗位来自高质量的经济结构和产业体系。要发展新动能、培育壮大新产业新业态,为劳动者提供更多高质量的就业岗位;推动传统产业转型升级,加快劳动力实现提质转岗就业。

——促改革,激发就业新活力。

一是以创业带就业。下半年将继续深化“放管服”改革,进一步优化营商环境,使更多新企业落地,以创业带动就业。二是深化劳动力供给侧改革。日前国家发改委与人社部、教育部、财政部等部门出台10项政策促进就业,其中特别提到健全联动机制,提高职业技能培训基础能力。三是推进高水平对外开放,简化外商投资相关程序,稳定和促进外向型就业。

——抓重点,织牢就业保障网。

针对重点地区,主要是针对东北地区、产能过剩的地区,以及现在可能受贸易摩擦影响的外向度较高的地区。

针对重点企业,主要是加大援企稳岗的力度,一方面进一步降低企业的用工成本,包括加快推进养老保险全国统筹、划拨部分国有资本充实社保基金,做好阶段性降低社会保险的费率工作,延长阶段性降低住房公积金缴存比例实施期限。另一方面,对符合产业升级方向、产品技术较为先进,但受贸易摩擦影响遇到暂时困难,同时又采取措施不减员、少裁员的企业,继续实施援企稳岗护航活动,鼓励企业尽力稳定现有就业岗位。

针对重点人群,就要充分利用就业补助资金,按规定及时将因产业结构调整、贸易摩擦等受影响的人员纳入相关就业政策和公共就业服务范围,规范公益性就业岗位的开发和管理,托底安置就业困难人员和零就业家庭就业。建立健全重大政策调整就业评估机制,强化就业政策的储备。

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